2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

LAL 4–1@GSW 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	116	95	−21
GSW Golden State Warriors (home)	114	112	−2

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	GSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1585	1465
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−50
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+3.2	−0.9
Games played this season	5	5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	115.5	116.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.6	119.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	11.3	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1585GSW1465

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1585

Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
This season's 5 games: +21.2

WGSW127–105+7.5
WLAC125–117+5.9
W@UTA132–123+4.5
LPOR129–136−12.2
W@LAC103–87+15.5

GSW1465

Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
This season's 5 games: +23.7

L@LAL105–127−7.5
LMEM108–111−9.2
L@PHX122–131−5.2
W@DEN134–114+32.3
W@MIN119–114+13.3

Season scoring marginLAL+3.2GSW−0.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+3.2

Scores 123.2, allows 113.6 over 5 games: +9.6 a game.

25% this season (+9.6) + 75% last season (+1.0) = +3.2

GSW−0.9

Scores 117.6, allows 119.4 over 5 games: −1.8 a game.

25% this season (−1.8) + 75% last season (−0.6) = −0.9

Offensive rating, last 10LAL115.5GSW116.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAL115.5scored, +0.9 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.3%	54.5%	+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.1%	12.2%	−4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.0%	26.1%	−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.255	0.210	+1.3
Everything else			−0.3

GSW116.3scored, +1.7 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.1%	54.5%	−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	12.2%	−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.5%	26.1%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.260	0.210	+1.4
Everything else			+2.0

Defensive rating, last 10LAL114.6GSW119.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAL114.6allowed, ±0.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.4%	54.5%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.2%	+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.5%	26.1%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			+0.4

GSW119.8allowed, +5.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.2%	54.5%	−7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	12.2%	+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.3%	26.1%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.200	0.210	+0.3
Everything else			+0.6

Pace, last 10average 98.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 97.8 and GSW 98.5 → average 98.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAL11.3GSW0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL11.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ziaire Williams	11.2	28.4	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysGSW2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Oct 28 against LAC.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 28 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	@LAC	103–87	35-79	9-31	24-33	19	17	105.1	89.7	97.5
Oct 27	POR	129–136	45-80	17-43	22-30	15	6	129.0	133.3	101.0
Oct 25	@UTA	132–123	40-82	20-47	32-38	10	5	130.7	120.6	101.5
Oct 23	LAC	125–117	46-79	14-32	19-25	21	8	122.5	113.6	102.5
Oct 21	GSW	127–105	46-81	11-28	24-27	18	10	124.5	102.9	102.0
May 11	OKC	110–115	38-75	10-28	24-27	19	7	112.2	117.3	98.0
May 9	OKC	108–131	38-81	14-30	18-25	16	14	117.4	140.9	92.5
May 7	@OKC	107–125	39-78	11-29	18-21	20	10	111.5	127.6	97.0
May 5	@OKC	90–108	35-85	10-30	10-13	17	12	95.7	116.1	93.5
May 1	@HOU	98–78	36-89	12-28	14-24	10	15	106.5	83.9	92.5

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	@MIN	119–114	39-89	11-35	30-37	17	13	110.2	105.6	108.0
Oct 26	@DEN	134–114	46-85	22-44	20-21	17	13	139.6	117.5	96.5
Oct 24	@PHX	122–131	41-91	17-39	23-32	16	19	119.6	129.7	101.5
Oct 23	MEM	108–111	34-83	14-41	26-29	19	18	108.0	112.1	99.5
Oct 21	@LAL	105–127	38-92	8-36	21-27	15	15	102.9	124.5	102.0
Apr 12	@LAC	110–115	36-86	11-39	27-32	9	13	117.0	121.1	94.5
Apr 10	@SAC	118–124	39-81	14-36	26-28	16	5	115.7	121.6	102.0
Apr 9	LAL	103–119	41-81	9-30	12-12	19	9	112.0	129.3	92.0
Apr 7	SAC	110–105	37-82	17-38	19-24	17	10	114.6	111.7	95.0
Apr 5	HOU	116–117	42-84	14-40	18-20	10	6	123.4	124.5	94.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

44%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

the forecast favored LAL

19 pts

margin miss

forecast −2, actual +17 for GSW

35th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

32nd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	GSW
Final score	95	112
Field goals	33–82 · 40.2%	38–89 · 42.7%
Three-pointers	11–39 · 28.2%	22–46 · 47.8%
Free throws	18–24 · 75.0%	14–17 · 82.4%
Rebounds	45	44
Assists	18	31
Turnovers	20	15
Steals	8	11
Blocks	11	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Golden State Warriors

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)	−2	+17	+19
Total points	230	207	−23
LAL points	116	95	−21
GSW points	114	112	−2

Recent form before this game