2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

LAC 1–3@MIN 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers	113	101	−12
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home)	115	127	+12

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAC	MIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1512	1587
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+146
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.6	+4.8
Games played this season	4	5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.8	108.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	111.7	111.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	33.3
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1512MIN1587

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1512

Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
This season's 4 games: −17.4

WSAC121–96+6.8
L@LAL117–125−5.9
L@OKC101–108−2.8
LLAL87–103−15.5

MIN1587

Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
This season's 5 games: +34.7

W@MIA131–106+21.7
W@ORL115–93+19.0
WTOR117–94+11.6
L@CLE125–127−4.3
LGSW114–119−13.3

Season scoring marginLAC+0.6MIN+4.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+0.6

Scores 106.5, allows 108.0 over 4 games: −1.5 a game.

20% this season (−1.5) + 80% last season (+1.1) = +0.6

MIN+4.8

Scores 120.4, allows 107.8 over 5 games: +12.6 a game.

25% this season (+12.6) + 75% last season (+2.2) = +4.8

Offensive rating, last 10LAC109.8MIN108.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC109.8scored, −4.8 vs league

Factor	LAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	54.5%	−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.0%	12.2%	−4.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.3%	26.1%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.210	−0.1
Everything else			+0.9

MIN108.2scored, −6.4 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.8%	54.5%	−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.3%	26.1%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			−0.4

Defensive rating, last 10LAC111.7MIN111.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC111.7allowed, −2.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.5%	+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.2%	+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.3%	26.1%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.233	0.210	−0.7
Everything else			+1.4

MIN111.0allowed, −3.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.5%	+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.2%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.4%	26.1%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.237	0.210	−0.8
Everything else			+1.6

Pace, last 10average 101.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 100.2 and MIN 103.2 → average 101.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAC0.0MIN33.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIN33.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Anthony Edwards	33.2	33.7	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestLAC2 daysMIN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC2days

Last played Oct 28 against LAL.

MIN2days

Last played Oct 28 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	LAL	87–103	26-74	10-31	25-27	24	12	89.7	105.1	97.5
Oct 25	@OKC	101–108	37-81	15-38	12-15	26	8	99.0	105.9	102.0
Oct 23	@LAL	117–125	41-83	16-37	19-25	25	11	113.6	122.5	102.5
Oct 21	SAC	121–96	43-82	14-35	21-31	17	11	116.3	91.4	104.5
Apr 12	GSW	115–110	42-89	14-39	17-19	10	10	121.1	117.0	94.5
Apr 10	@POR	97–116	36-83	13-40	12-12	16	9	102.1	122.1	95.0
Apr 8	OKC	110–128	40-86	14-32	16-24	13	10	111.1	129.3	99.0
Apr 7	DAL	116–103	41-92	14-37	20-28	14	11	109.4	97.2	106.0
Apr 5	@SAC	138–109	49-92	20-41	20-21	14	10	135.3	105.8	102.5
Apr 2	SAS	99–118	40-93	5-27	14-18	10	10	100.0	120.4	98.5

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	GSW	114–119	40-90	15-45	19-27	15	7	105.6	110.2	108.0
Oct 26	@CLE	125–127	49-102	13-40	14-23	17	17	112.6	112.4	101.4
Oct 25	TOR	117–94	43-77	15-31	16-25	23	9	118.2	95.9	98.5
Oct 23	@ORL	115–93	42-98	14-37	17-30	12	22	113.9	92.1	101.0
Oct 21	@MIA	131–106	46-98	21-50	18-29	14	17	124.8	100.0	105.5
May 15	SAS	109–139	40-106	12-34	17-21	5	9	103.8	133.7	104.5
May 12	@SAS	97–126	32-83	9-33	24-30	13	10	94.2	122.3	103.0
May 10	SAS	114–109	42-94	10-27	20-22	17	15	115.2	107.9	100.0
May 8	SAS	108–115	38-99	14-40	18-21	12	15	106.9	113.9	101.0
May 6	@SAS	95–133	35-88	9-30	16-31	22	12	86.4	122.0	109.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

56%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner

MIN was the forecast favorite

24 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual +26 for MIN

61st

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

19th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAC	MIN
Final score	101	127
Field goals	35–85 · 41.2%	51–95 · 53.7%
Three-pointers	12–30 · 40.0%	18–42 · 42.9%
Free throws	19–22 · 86.4%	7–11 · 63.6%
Rebounds	42	43
Assists	24	32
Turnovers	17	11
Steals	7	7
Blocks	7	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Minnesota Timberwolves

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)	+2	+26	+24
Total points	228	228	±0
LAC points	113	101	−12
MIN points	115	127	+12

Recent form before this game