2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 3:00 PM ET

POR 3–1@UTA 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	126	112	−14
UTA Utah Jazz (home)	118	90	−28

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	UTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1517	1314
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−133
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.0	−8.3
Games played this season	4	5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.6	108.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.5	119.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	15.8	16.3
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1517UTA1314

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1517

Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
This season's 4 games: +6.1

WPHX124–83+22.0
W@SAC128–120+6.0
W@LAL136–129+12.2
LMEM103–124−34.1

UTA1314

Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
This season's 5 games: −22.6

L@MEM103–123−12.8
WNOP120–119+4.4
LLAL123–132−4.5
LMEM105–110−7.8
LSAS111–117−1.9

Season scoring marginPOR+1.0UTA−8.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR+1.0

Scores 122.8, allows 114.0 over 4 games: +8.8 a game.

20% this season (+8.8) + 80% last season (−1.0) = +1.0

UTA−8.3

Scores 112.4, allows 120.2 over 5 games: −7.8 a game.

25% this season (−7.8) + 75% last season (−8.4) = −8.3

Offensive rating, last 10POR111.6UTA108.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR111.6scored, −3.0 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.0%	54.5%	−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.9%	26.1%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			−0.7

UTA108.4scored, −6.2 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.5%	54.5%	−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.2%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.3%	26.1%	+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			−2.4

Defensive rating, last 10POR114.5UTA119.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR114.5allowed, −0.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	54.5%	−0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.2%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.5%	26.1%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			+0.3

UTA119.4allowed, +4.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.8%	54.5%	−4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.2%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.4%	26.1%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.210	−0.0
Everything else			−0.1

Pace, last 10average 102.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 99.0 and UTA 106.4 → average 102.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPOR15.8UTA16.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR15.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ja Morant	15.8	25.9	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

UTA16.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jaren Jackson Jr.	16.2	26.1	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysUTA3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Oct 29 against MEM.

UTA3days

Last played Oct 28 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 29	MEM	103–124	37-91	12-49	17-26	16	13	101.0	121.6	102.0
Oct 27	@LAL	136–129	46-78	18-36	26-41	14	7	133.3	129.0	101.0
Oct 23	@SAC	128–120	46-96	14-48	22-30	9	13	120.8	113.2	106.0
Oct 21	PHX	124–83	45-94	19-47	15-18	17	16	126.5	86.5	97.0
Apr 28	@SAS	95–114	33-94	11-47	18-23	9	14	99.0	121.3	95.0
Apr 26	SAS	93–114	32-80	10-31	19-23	18	7	93.0	116.3	99.0
Apr 24	SAS	108–120	37-90	14-38	20-29	10	16	109.1	122.4	98.5
Apr 21	@SAS	106–103	38-89	13-38	17-23	15	15	108.2	106.2	97.5
Apr 19	@SAS	98–111	39-91	10-38	10-12	10	8	102.1	116.8	95.5
Apr 12	SAC	122–110	47-101	16-46	12-15	12	18	123.2	112.2	98.5

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	SAS	111–117	39-92	15-39	18-19	19	12	102.8	108.3	97.8
Oct 26	MEM	105–110	38-92	10-33	19-25	13	14	104.0	110.0	100.5
Oct 25	LAL	123–132	46-95	10-35	21-27	17	20	120.6	130.7	101.5
Oct 23	NOP	120–119	41-84	13-35	25-33	18	14	117.6	116.7	102.0
Oct 21	@MEM	103–123	35-75	11-32	22-33	18	5	99.0	118.3	104.0
Apr 12	@LAL	107–131	41-94	7-34	18-27	16	14	101.9	123.6	105.5
Apr 10	MEM	147–101	62-110	15-35	8-17	16	8	121.5	83.5	121.0
Apr 7	@NOP	137–156	53-104	10-32	21-24	16	7	112.3	127.9	122.0
Apr 5	@OKC	111–146	43-100	14-39	11-15	16	14	101.8	136.4	108.0
Apr 3	@HOU	106–140	43-96	5-27	15-22	13	17	102.9	138.6	102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

72%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

POR was the forecast favorite

14 pts

margin miss

forecast −8, actual −22 for UTA

112th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

48th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	UTA
Final score	112	90
Field goals	31–76 · 40.8%	29–78 · 37.2%
Three-pointers	16–44 · 36.4%	11–40 · 27.5%
Free throws	34–41 · 82.9%	21–26 · 80.8%
Rebounds	48	37
Assists	16	23
Turnovers	17	19
Steals	13	12
Blocks	3	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Utah Jazz

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)	−8	−22	−14
Total points	244	202	−42
POR points	126	112	−14
UTA points	118	90	−28

Recent form before this game