The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 9

2026-27 · Regular Season · Scheduled

New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors

Monday, November 9, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

NOP 4–6@GSW 7–3 records going into the game

Win probability as a share of the court: NOP 21 percent, GSW 79 percent. NOP Pelicans 21% proj. 111 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 79% proj. 122
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinal
NOP New Orleans Pelicans 111 –
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 122 –

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans GSW

  • Home court+2.1 GSWWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Player availability+3.8 GSWNOP without Zion Williamson (21 ppg) and Trey Murphy III (16 ppg) and 2 more; GSW without Will Richard (5 ppg).
  • Team strength+2.4 GSWElo GSW 1515, NOP 1424; season margin GSW +2.2, NOP −2.4.
  • Recent form+1.9 GSWLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: GSW scores 116.9 and allows 112.2; NOP scores 114.0 and allows 114.6.

Together: GSW by 11, a 79% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

GSW is 7–3, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 119, allowing 114). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 56% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.6. Their defense forces turnovers on 14.4% of opponent possessions (league 13.2%), which alone adds about 1.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.1. Will Richard (5 ppg) is out.

NOP is 4–6, about even on points (scoring 120, allowing 121). Last season they were a −4 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense makes 30 free throws per 100 shots (league 23), which alone adds about 2.2 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 2.7 points per 100 possessions. Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi and Trendon Watford are out (53 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors GSW; left favors NOP.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Player availability +3.8, Team strength +2.4, Recent form +1.9, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +10.4 for GSW. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Player availability +3.8 Team strength +2.4 Recent form +1.9 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +10.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +10.4. The 79% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputNOPGSWEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14241515 +0.9
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +161 +1.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −2.4+2.2 +0.6
Games played this season 1010 −0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.0116.9 +0.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.6112.2 +0.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.4 +0.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 53.25.1 +3.8
Rest days 12 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueGSW ptsNOP ptsMargin
Rotation points missing (away)53.2+1.21−1.91+3.12
Elo gap incl. home court160.7+0.92−0.75+1.67
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)116.9+0.66−0.23+0.89
Combined pace, last 10101.4+3.16+2.28+0.88
Rotation points missing (home)5.1+0.51−0.17+0.68
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)112.2−0.55−1.19+0.64
Elo rating (away)1423.9+0.62−0.01+0.63
Games played (away)10.0−0.04+0.50−0.53
Season scoring margin (away)-2.4+0.50+0.09+0.41
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)114.6−0.29+0.04−0.33
Home series wins0.0+0.30+0.04+0.25
Elo rating (home)1514.5+0.01−0.23+0.24
Games played (home)10.0−0.24+0.01−0.24
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.0−0.00+0.21−0.21
Season scoring margin (home)2.2+0.34+0.16+0.19
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.02+0.03
Rest days (away)1.0+0.03+0.01+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0−0.01+0.00−0.01
Back-to-back (home)0+0.00±0.00+0.00
Elimination game0+0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1424GSW15152.5 pts toward GSW

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1424

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
  2. This season's 10 games: −0.1
  • LIND120–123−8.2
  • L@UTA119–120−4.4
  • L@DEN135–141−2.5
  • LDEN91–104−9.0
  • WSAC132–120+6.8
  • WATL121–99+22.7
  • W@MEM135–134+5.0
  • WUTA120–113+3.4
  • LMIN109–115−5.1
  • L@LAC123–139−8.8

GSW1515

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 10 games: +72.8
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
  • LMEM108–111−9.2
  • L@PHX122–131−5.2
  • W@DEN134–114+32.3
  • W@MIN119–114+13.3
  • WLAL112–95+17.4
  • WLAC124–112+9.5
  • WPHX116–113+4.3
  • WMIA120–100+12.2
  • WORL126–119+5.7
Season scoring marginNOP−2.4GSW+2.20.2 pts toward NOP

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−2.4

Scores 120.5, allows 120.8 over 10 games: −0.3 a game.

50% this season (−0.3) + 50% last season (−4.5) = −2.4

GSW+2.2

Scores 118.6, allows 113.6 over 10 games: +5.0 a game.

50% this season (+5.0) + 50% last season (−0.6) = +2.2

Offensive rating, last 10NOP114.0GSW116.90.7 pts toward GSW

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

NOP114.0scored, +1.6 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%53.3%+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%13.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%27.3%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.3020.226+2.2
Everything else+0.3

GSW116.9scored, +4.6 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.4%53.3%+4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)14.3%13.2%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%27.3%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2570.226+0.9
Everything else−0.2
Defensive rating, last 10NOP114.6GSW112.20.3 pts toward GSW

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

NOP114.6allowed, +2.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%53.3%−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%13.2%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%27.3%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2590.226−1.0
Everything else+0.4

GSW112.2allowed, −0.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%53.3%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%13.2%+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%27.3%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.226+0.3
Everything else−0.2
Pace, last 10average 101.40.9 pts toward GSW

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 102.4 and GSW 100.4 → average 101.4 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.3)

Rotation points missingNOP53.2GSW5.13.8 pts toward GSW

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP53.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Zion Williamson21.033.010
Trey Murphy III15.632.89
Yves Missi9.519.62
Trendon Watford7.217.76

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 21:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

GSW5.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Will Richard5.117.210

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 21:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestNOP1 daysGSW2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 8 against LAC.

GSW2days

Last played Nov 7 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 8@LAC123–13941-8110-2931-351610123.0139.0100.0
Nov 6MIN109–11539-8610-2421-261312111.2119.897.0
Nov 4UTA120–11338-895-2039-431713111.1102.798.7
Nov 2@MEM135–13448-10114-3725-30814123.9124.198.3
Oct 31ATL121–9943-767-1728-352310114.294.3105.5
Oct 29SAC132–12050-8510-2922-32205118.9108.1111.0
Oct 28DEN91–10434-827-3016-2219890.1104.0100.5
Oct 24@DEN135–14150-9911-3824-301814116.4119.5106.0
Oct 23@UTA119–12044-878-2623-27159116.7117.6102.0
Oct 21IND120–12338-8910-3034-371414114.3117.1105.0

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 7ORL126–11943-8015-3225-31183114.5109.299.2
Nov 5MIA120–10042-8016-4120-25187115.495.2104.5
Nov 2PHX116–11336-8413-4231-371312117.2114.199.0
Nov 1LAC124–11246-8622-4910-141511122.8112.0100.5
Oct 30LAL112–9538-8922-4614-171515119.1102.293.5
Oct 28@MIN119–11439-8911-3530-371713110.2105.6108.0
Oct 26@DEN134–11446-8522-4420-211713139.6117.596.5
Oct 24@PHX122–13141-9117-3923-321619119.6129.7101.5
Oct 23MEM108–11134-8314-4126-291918108.0112.199.5
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

More about this game

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-09 21:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Out Trendon Watford · Right Ankle Sprain
  • Out Trey Murphy III
  • Out Yves Missi
  • Out Zion Williamson · Rest

Golden State Warriors

  • Out Gary Payton II
  • Out Jimmy Butler III · Right ACLRepair
  • Out Kristaps Porziņģis · Not With Team
  • Out Moses Moody
  • Out Will Richard · Left Thumb UCLTear

Recent form before this game

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Nov 8 at LAC L 123–139
Nov 6 vs MIN L 109–115
Nov 4 vs UTA W 120–113
Nov 2 at MEM W 135–134
Oct 31 vs ATL W 121–99

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Nov 7 vs ORL W 126–119
Nov 5 vs MIA W 120–100
Nov 2 vs PHX W 116–113
Nov 1 vs LAC W 124–112
Oct 30 vs LAL W 112–95

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Feb 24 2025-26 GSW at NOP GSW 109 – 113 NOP
Nov 29 2025-26 NOP at GSW NOP 96 – 104 GSW
Nov 16 2025-26 GSW at NOP GSW 124 – 106 NOP
Mar 28 2024-25 GSW at NOP GSW 111 – 95 NOP
Nov 22 2024-25 GSW at NOP GSW 112 – 108 NOP