The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

OKC 4–2@CLE 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: OKC 41 percent, CLE 59 percent. OKC Thunder 41% proj. 110 · final 117 CLE Cavaliers · home 59% proj. 113 · final 112
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 110 117 +7
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) 113 112 −1

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputOKCCLE
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16561579
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.3+3.5
Games played this season 66
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 105.7109.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.2115.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 41.37.8
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1656CLE1579

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1656

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
  2. This season's 6 games: −26.2
  • W@SAS116–104+15.8
  • WDEN96–84+5.4
  • WLAC108–101+2.8
  • WPHX125–114+3.2
  • L@DAL96–120−36.4
  • L@HOU98–119−17.0

CLE1579

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
  2. This season's 6 games: +5.3
  • L@PHI106–114−7.9
  • WBKN125–121+1.3
  • WMIN127–125+4.3
  • WWAS121–111+2.0
  • L@ATL111–114−4.7
  • W@MIL136–111+10.3
Season scoring marginOKC+7.3CLE+3.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+7.3

Scores 106.5, allows 107.0 over 6 games: −0.5 a game.

30% this season (−0.5) + 70% last season (+10.7) = +7.3

CLE+3.5

Scores 121.0, allows 116.0 over 6 games: +5.0 a game.

30% this season (+5.0) + 70% last season (+2.8) = +3.5

Offensive rating, last 10OKC105.7CLE109.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC105.7scored, −8.9 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.4%54.5%−9.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.0%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.210−0.2
Everything else−0.1

CLE109.9scored, −4.7 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.5%−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2210.210+0.3
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10OKC111.2CLE115.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC111.2allowed, −3.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.6%54.5%+5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.210+0.1
Everything else−1.8

CLE115.1allowed, +0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.5%−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%26.1%±0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.210+0.7
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 99.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 98.3 and CLE 100.2 → average 99.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingOKC41.3CLE7.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC41.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Williams13.731.63
Chet Holmgren12.029.93
Alex Caruso9.218.94
Cason Wallace6.316.33

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

CLE7.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jaylon Tyson7.820.75

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestOKC2 daysCLE2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC2days

Last played Oct 31 against HOU.

CLE2days

Last played Oct 31 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31@HOU98–11937-8510-3214-151310104.3126.694.0
Oct 28@DAL96–12036-875-3219-23131298.0122.498.0
Oct 26PHX125–11444-8612-3225-291612127.6117.597.5
Oct 25LAC108–10142-948-2416-171615105.999.0102.0
Oct 22DEN96–8436-9511-4313-141216102.189.494.0
Oct 20@SAS116–10443-9514-3116-201110113.7102.0102.0
May 30SAS103–11137-8312-3517-221310109.6120.793.0
May 28@SAS91–11835-9410-4011-12121291.0119.299.5
May 26SAS127–11440-8314-3233-381614124.5112.9101.5
May 24@SAS82–10330-916-3316-18171180.4102.0101.5

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31@MIL136–11152-10020-4612-181114129.5105.7105.0
Oct 29@ATL111–11438-8713-4222-2999113.3116.398.0
Oct 28WAS121–11143-9114-3821-221315127.4119.494.0
Oct 26MIN127–12546-10218-4517-231213112.4112.6101.4
Oct 24BKN125–12140-7916-3829-38239116.8113.1107.0
Oct 22@PHI106–11439-877-2921-28211097.2103.6109.5
May 25NYK93–13032-7711-4018-2222691.2127.5102.0
May 23NYK108–12142-8412-4112-19179110.2124.797.5
May 21@NYK93–10931-809-3522-32813104.5122.589.0
May 19@NYK104–11536-9016-5016-23191196.3105.598.3

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
41%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
the forecast favored CLE
8 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual −5 for CLE
28th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
79th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statOKCCLE
Final score117112
Field goals42–98 · 42.9%40–90 · 44.4%
Three-pointers12–31 · 38.7%18–49 · 36.7%
Free throws21–23 · 91.3%14–24 · 58.3%
Rebounds5446
Assists1831
Turnovers87
Steals57
Blocks43

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Cleveland Cavaliers

More about this game

Where the forecast differed from the result
MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)+3−5−8
Total points223229+6
OKC points110117+7
CLE points113112−1

Recent form before this game

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 at HOU L 98–119
Oct 28 at DAL L 96–120
Oct 26 vs PHX W 125–114
Oct 25 vs LAC W 108–101
Oct 22 vs DEN W 96–84

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 at MIL W 136–111
Oct 29 at ATL L 111–114
Oct 28 vs WAS W 121–111
Oct 26 vs MIN W 127–125
Oct 24 vs BKN W 125–121

Previous meetings
DateMatchupScore
Feb 22 2025-26 CLE at OKC CLE 113 – 121 OKC
Jan 19 2025-26 OKC at CLE OKC 136 – 104 CLE
Jan 16 2024-25 CLE at OKC CLE 114 – 134 OKC
Jan 8 2024-25 OKC at CLE OKC 122 – 129 CLE
Nov 8 2023-24 CLE at OKC CLE 120 – 128 OKC