2026-27 · Regular Season · Scheduled

Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets

Monday, November 9, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

CLE 5–5@CHA 3–7 records going into the game

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	113	–
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home)	107	–

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CLE

Home court+2.1 CHAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+3.3 CLEElo CHA 1473, CLE 1572; season margin CHA −4.5, CLE +2.9.
Player availability+2.9 CLECLE without Jaylon Tyson (8 ppg) and Sam Merrill (8 ppg); CHA without Brandon Miller (21 ppg) and Dennis Schröder (10 ppg) and 1 more.
Recent form+2.0 CLELast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CHA scores 99.8 and allows 113.9; CLE scores 115.1 and allows 112.7.

Together: CLE by 6, a 68% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CLE is 5–5, winning by 3 a game on average (scoring 117, allowing 114). Last season they were a +3 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 11.6% of possessions (league 13.2%), which alone adds about 2.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +1.7. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.5% of opponent possessions (league 13.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +3. Jaylon Tyson and Sam Merrill are out (15 rotation points a game combined).

CHA is 3–7, losing by 14 a game on average (scoring 96, allowing 110). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 47% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −4, offensive rebounding +1.8. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.8. Brandon Miller, Dennis Schröder and Moussa Diabaté are out (40 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CHA; left favors CLE.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −5.9. The 68% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	CLE	CHA	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1572	1473	+0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−29		−2.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.9	−4.5	−0.6
Games played this season	10	10	−0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	115.1	99.8	−2.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.7	113.9	+0.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.6		+0.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	15.5	39.7	−2.9
Rest days	2	3	+0.1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No	+0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	CHA pts	CLE pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	-28.5	−0.88	+1.32	−2.19
Rotation points missing (home)	39.7	−2.03	+0.14	−2.17
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	99.8	−2.50	−0.34	−2.17
Rotation points missing (away)	15.5	−0.16	+0.56	−0.72
Games played (away)	10.0	−0.07	+0.45	−0.52
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	113.9	−0.00	−0.43	+0.43
Season scoring margin (home)	-4.5	−0.47	−0.06	−0.42
Elo rating (away)	1571.9	+0.20	−0.05	+0.25
Season scoring margin (away)	2.9	+0.02	+0.25	−0.23
Games played (home)	10.0	−0.15	+0.04	−0.19
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	112.7	−0.23	−0.04	−0.19
Home series wins	0.0	+0.22	+0.08	+0.13
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	115.1	+0.05	+0.17	−0.12
Rest days (home)	3.0	+0.04	−0.02	+0.07
Combined pace, last 10	98.6	−1.22	−1.26	+0.03
Series pressure	0.0	+0.05	+0.03	+0.02
Back-to-back (home)	0	+0.01	±0.00	+0.01
Rest days (away)	2.0	+0.01	+0.01	−0.01
Elimination game	0	+0.00	+0.01	−0.00
Elo rating (home)	1473.3	−0.03	−0.03	±0.00
Back-to-back (away)	0	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1572CHA14731.9 pts toward CLE

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1572

Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
This season's 10 games: −1.9

L@PHI106–114−7.9
WBKN125–121+1.3
WMIN127–125+4.3
WWAS121–111+2.0
L@ATL111–114−4.7
W@MIL136–111+10.3
LOKC112–117−6.9
L@OKC116–124−4.6
WPHI119–95+14.8
LNYK97–109−10.5

CHA1473

Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
This season's 10 games: −138.1

W@BKN110–103+3.0
LATL81–128−48.4
WMIA115–110+3.7
WWAS110–103+1.6
L@DET89–97−5.3
L@WAS79–95−25.5
LPHI104–109−8.6
LDET91–124−20.2
L@BKN104–114−16.3
LBOS80–119−22.1

Season scoring marginCLE+2.9CHA−4.51.4 pts toward CLE

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+2.9

Scores 117.0, allows 114.1 over 10 games: +2.9 a game.

50% this season (+2.9) + 50% last season (+2.8) = +2.9

CHA−4.5

Scores 96.3, allows 110.2 over 10 games: −13.9 a game.

50% this season (−13.9) + 50% last season (+4.8) = −4.5

Offensive rating, last 10CLE115.1CHA99.82.3 pts toward CLE

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

CLE115.1scored, +2.8 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	53.3%	+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	13.2%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.9%	27.3%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.215	0.226	−0.3
Everything else			−0.3

CHA99.8scored, −12.5 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	47.1%	53.3%	−9.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	16.0%	13.2%	−4.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.4%	27.3%	+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.184	0.226	−1.2
Everything else			+0.3

Defensive rating, last 10CLE112.7CHA113.90.2 pts toward CHA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.4).

CLE112.7allowed, +0.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.0%	53.3%	+3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	13.2%	−3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.7%	27.3%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.226	+0.8
Everything else			−1.5

CHA113.9allowed, +1.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	53.3%	−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	13.2%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.3%	27.3%	+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.221	0.226	+0.1
Everything else			+0.6

Pace, last 10average 98.6no effect on the margin

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 100.5 and CHA 96.7 → average 98.6 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.3)

Rotation points missingCLE15.5CHA39.72.9 pts toward CLE

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE15.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jaylon Tyson	7.8	20.7	5
Sam Merrill	7.7	23.1	9

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

CHA39.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Brandon Miller	20.6	31.0	10
Dennis Schröder	10.2	29.9	9
Moussa Diabaté	8.9	28.7	9

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysCHA3 days0.1 pts toward CHA

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played Nov 7 against NYK.

CHA3days

Last played Nov 6 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 7	NYK	97–109	35-82	16-50	11-19	11	10	106.6	121.1	90.5
Nov 6	PHI	119–95	40-88	13-37	26-34	15	14	117.8	94.1	101.0
Nov 4	@OKC	116–124	40-93	19-49	17-19	12	10	113.7	120.4	102.5
Nov 2	OKC	112–117	40-90	18-49	14-24	7	11	116.7	120.6	96.5
Oct 31	@MIL	136–111	52-100	20-46	12-18	11	14	129.5	105.7	105.0
Oct 29	@ATL	111–114	38-87	13-42	22-29	9	9	113.3	116.3	98.0
Oct 28	WAS	121–111	43-91	14-38	21-22	13	15	127.4	119.4	94.0
Oct 26	MIN	127–125	46-102	18-45	17-23	12	13	112.4	112.6	101.4
Oct 24	BKN	125–121	40-79	16-38	29-38	23	9	116.8	113.1	107.0
Oct 22	@PHI	106–114	39-87	7-29	21-28	21	10	97.2	103.6	109.5

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	BOS	80–119	27-92	11-50	15-17	15	19	83.3	124.0	96.0
Nov 4	@BKN	104–114	31-77	12-40	30-36	17	11	110.6	121.3	94.0
Nov 2	DET	91–124	32-84	13-44	14-19	25	18	94.8	126.5	97.0
Oct 31	PHI	104–109	38-76	14-39	14-16	18	9	115.6	119.8	90.5
Oct 30	@WAS	79–95	30-101	12-56	7-12	10	18	83.2	99.0	95.5
Oct 28	@DET	89–97	31-71	12-35	15-19	23	9	93.7	102.1	95.0
Oct 26	WAS	110–103	42-97	12-39	14-17	11	20	114.6	108.4	95.5
Oct 24	MIA	115–110	38-88	16-43	23-25	16	10	113.9	107.8	101.5
Oct 23	ATL	81–128	30-87	11-51	10-12	25	19	81.0	128.0	100.0
Oct 21	@BKN	110–103	41-93	15-48	13-15	20	15	107.8	102.0	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

More about this game

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-09 18:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.