5,390
games graded
NBA forecasts, on the record
Every game forecast. Every forecast graded.
The Hoop Ledger is an independent NBA prediction model. Each game gets a projected score and a win probability from a model trained only on earlier games. Every forecast goes in the ledger and is checked against the final, every season since 2022-23. Most of that record comes from a walk-forward test run after the fact; new forecasts are now saved each day before tip-off.
3510 of 5390 forecasts picked the winner.
Hover the ball to see a season.
65.1%
winners picked
11.0
avg margin miss, pts
0.217
Brier score
98–48
2026-27 record
67.1%
2026-27 winners
Games
All dates and filtersResults through Nov 8Latest forecast Nov 9, 2026, 11:08 AM ETInjury report Nov 9, 11:00 AM ETModel trained Nov 7 Updated Nov 9, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Forecasts are posted earlier in the day and may be updated in the hour before tip-off with the latest injury report. The last forecast saved before tip-off is the one that is graded. How forecasts are locked.
Last night Friday, Nov 6
- FinalWAS 132ATL 139Proj. 110–120 ✓ Picked ATL
- FinalBOS 119CHA 80Proj. 111–104 ✓ Picked BOS
- FinalPHI 95CLE 119Proj. 117–116 ✗ Picked PHI
- FinalUTA 100DAL 112Proj. 114–121 ✓ Picked DAL
- FinalOKC 128MEM 97Proj. 116–112 ✓ Picked OKC
- FinalTOR 121MIL 107Proj. 122–115 ✓ Picked TOR
- FinalMIN 115NOP 109Proj. 122–115 ✓ Picked MIN
- FinalPOR 118LAL 124Proj. 114–119 ✓ Picked LAL
- FinalSAS 124SAC 109Proj. 121–111 ✓ Picked SAS
Last night Saturday, Nov 7
- FinalDEN 114IND 102Proj. 119–112 ✓ Picked DEN
- FinalBKN 121ATL 124Proj. 109–121 ✓ Picked ATL
- FinalNYK 109CLE 97Proj. 113–108 ✓ Picked NYK
- FinalWAS 75OKC 114Proj. 107–115 ✓ Picked OKC
- FinalORL 119GSW 126Proj. 107–119 ✓ Picked GSW
- FinalHOU 99PHX 102Proj. 117–111 ✗ Picked HOU Upset
- FinalSAS 125POR 103Proj. 115–109 ✓ Picked SAS
Last night Sunday, Nov 8
- FinalPHI 127CHI 121Proj. 123–116 ✓ Picked PHI
- FinalLAL 121DET 116Proj. 109–113 ✗ Picked DET
- FinalUTA 100MIN 115Proj. 106–123 ✓ Picked MIN
- FinalBKN 93DAL 130Proj. 109–118 ✓ Picked DAL
- FinalBOS 117MIL 97Proj. 120–111 ✓ Picked BOS
- FinalNOP 123LAC 139Proj. 115–119 ✓ Picked LAC
- FinalMIA 114SAC 108Proj. 123–118 ✓ Picked MIA
Tonight Monday, Nov 9
Tonight Tuesday, Nov 10
Tonight Wednesday, Nov 11
- 7:00 PM W–LWAS 4–6IND 3–7Forecast coming
- 7:00 PM W–LCLE 5–5NYK 5–4Forecast coming
- 7:00 PM W–LBOS 8–2TOR 5–4Forecast coming
- 8:00 PM W–LSAS 8–2CHI 1–8Forecast coming
- 8:00 PM W–LDEN 5–3MEM 6–3Forecast coming
- 8:00 PM W–LLAL 9–2MIL 1–9Forecast coming
- 8:00 PM W–LBKN 2–8NOP 4–6Forecast coming
- 9:00 PM W–LORL 2–7UTA 1–9Forecast coming
- 9:30 PM W–LGSW 7–3HOU 7–3Forecast coming
- 10:00 PM W–LOKC 8–2POR 6–3Forecast coming
Tonight Thursday, Nov 12
Tonight Friday, Nov 13
- 7:00 PM W–LNYK 5–4IND 3–7Forecast coming
- 7:00 PM W–LMIL 1–9ORL 2–7Forecast coming
- 8:00 PM W–LCLE 5–5MIA 4–6Forecast coming
- 8:00 PM W–LATL 7–4CHI 1–8Forecast coming
- 8:00 PM W–LMEM 6–3NOP 4–6Forecast coming
- 8:30 PM W–LUTA 1–9HOU 7–3Forecast coming
- 9:30 PM W–LGSW 7–3SAS 8–2Forecast coming
- 10:00 PM W–LPOR 6–3SAC 1–9Forecast coming
- 10:30 PM W–LOKC 8–2LAC 2–7Forecast coming
Biggest surprise of the week
UpsetMIN beat HOU on Nov 4. The model gave MIN a 13% chance.
| Team | Win chance | Forecast | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 13% | 101 | 117 | ✓ Won |
| @HOUpicked | 87% | 118 | 107 |
Forecast: HOU by 17. Final: MIN by 10. Missed the margin by 27 points.Game breakdown →NBA.com recap ↗
Surprising relative to this model's forecast. Which teams are hardest to forecast?